ISSUE
The Challenges We Tackle
As the number of satellites continues to grow, it is estimated that by 2030 there will be approximately 37 million close approaches per year requiring collisionavoidance assessment.
Challenges Faced by Satellite Operators in Collision Avoidance
- Data: The conjunction data currently provided to satellite operators is incomplete, often containing positional uncertainties of around 10 km.
- Operations: Executing collisionavoidance maneuvers requires analyzing conjunction data and developing avoidance plans tailored to each satellite.
- Business Impact: Collisionavoidance maneuvers reduce satellite lifetime and can lead to lost observation opportunities, resulting in significant business losses.
Satellite operators are expected to perform Collision Avoidance (CA) to prevent spacetraffic accidents and protect the orbital environment when their satellites come into close proximity with other objects.
• ISO 24113:2019 – Space Debris Mitigation Requirements
• LongTerm Sustainability (LTS) Guidelines for Outer Space Activities – United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS)
The Threat of Space Debris
A catastrophic deterioration of the space environment caused by collisions with space debris could occur at any time. In February 2024, a nearmiss incident took place between a NASA atmosphericobservation satellite and a Russian reconnaissance satellite—an event that underscores the growing risks in Earth orbit.
Recent analysis revealed that the two satellites had approached to within less than 10 meters of each other—an astonishingly close distance. For both NASA and myself, this finding was deeply shocking. If the satellites had collided, the impact would have generated a massive cloud of debris. Even small fragments, traveling at tens of thousands of miles per hour, could puncture other spacecraft and put human lives at risk.
— Pam Melroy, NASA Deputy Administrator https://uchubiz.com/article/new45330/
| Year | Collision Incidents |
|---|---|
| 1996 | A fragment from an Ariane rocket collided with the French military observation satellite CERISE, damaging its boom. |
| 2009 | A defunct Russian satellite collided with the U.S. communications satellite Iridium, destroying the spacecraft. |
| 2013 | A fragment from a former Soviet rocket struck Ecuador’s small satellite NEE01 Pegaso, causing it to spin uncontrollably and lose communication. |
In outer space, even a single collision can trigger catastrophic consequences—equivalent to more than ¥25 trillion in economic losses, comparable to 250 natural disasters.
This estimate is based on findings from the OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers (2020), “Space Sustainability: The Economics of Space Debris in Perspective.”
Preventing such spacetraffic accidents requires comprehensive Space Situational Awareness (SSA), which involves continuously monitoring and predicting the trajectories of objects in orbit.